How it Feels to Hold Bitcoin, Q1 2026
Rangebound Bitcoin continues in 1st Half 2026
In my last post, I introduced the concept of range-bound bitcoin as I noted why Bitcoin price might be stalling:
everyone who “believes” in Bitcoin has already put in all their money, or has already gone broke chasing altcoins, and are actually net sellers
Institutional holders may be forced to trim Bitcoin exposure by EOY to remain within charter-mandated allocation limits
Therefore, no net new liquidity is entering the system, and price action has stalled.
A new data point I’ve gathered is that the current bitcoin detractors—those who are most able to drive price upwards—are not buying the current argument for bitcoin. This demographic is mostly older, have significant fiat assets, and are most prone to “it has no value because I can’t touch it” lines of thinking.
Absent a huge cataclysmic event that forces an entire rethink of the entire financial system, there is no reason for those who are 1. older and 2. relatively well-off, to enter into Bitcoin in any meaningful size.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs allow for huge outflows from OG holders to cash out their bags and definitively win without triggering large price drops. That’s right, if you bought in size circa early ~2010s and didn’t move until late 2025, that was a ~15 year HODL and you definitively won. Don’t let Bitcoin Twitter tell you otherwise. You understood something fundamental about money, executed in size with conviction, and rode out multiple 50, 60, 70% drawdowns. You deserve the hundreds of millions, if not billions, even if it is in fiat.
This is one of the least talked about functions of High Prices—it forces Idealists to actually put a price tag on their idealism. $100k+ bitocin is basically society saying: “Ok OG Bitcoiners, you were right. You can get all the mansions, all the cars, the yachts, the parties, all the material benefits. You were right. We want to buy you out.” I suspect many Bitcoin OGs have secretly sold out. You would too if you were presented with $100M+.1
In this way, bitcoin is recirculated into the current fiat world and is mostly captured by status quo (big name) players.
All of these factors present a huge opportunity for new entrants to the space. But at the same time it is uncomfortable for bitcoin plebs who are still hanging on precariously.
Bitcoin Plebs
Nevertheless plebs have a role in the economy—to be an escape valve and present a viable alternative to those currently in fiat. Whereas the past 15 years in “crypto” has produced a lot of talking heads and influencers, the next 15 years could produce entire small-scale distributed societies of normal people—plebs—who are not only bitcoin holders, but bitcoin users.
The monetization of bitcoin continues, and acts as a de facto check against runaway government spending (hint, the government spending will continue as per Lyn Alden)
Absent any way to stop plebs, pleb lifestyle could proliferate as fiat lifestyles become more and more materialistic, vapid, and ultimately unsustainable.
The Current Shiny Objects
But alas, there are numerous ways to distract plebs. Enter Bitcoin Treasury Companies. These companies will:
raise money via stock offerings
buy bitcoin using your money
issue you a stock which can / will be diluted
give you yield
No thanks, you can miss me with that—but plenty of bitcoin influencers this cycle shilled exactly this play and many plebs have fallen for it in size. I don’t blame them—there are scant options out there for passive income on bitcoin.
The Bargain
But just remember: anything that is presented as easy is usually a trap. Conversely, holding bitcoin feels very difficult right now. But it is no more difficult than at any other time in the past—it just requires an insane amount of patience for the thesis to play out.
Bitcoin is presenting you with a bargain: if you accept the pain right now, you’re on your way to a huge payday later. This type of tradeoff is no different than a worthwhile pursuit in any other field—be it in medicine, engineering, or law.
The payday might come in fiat but that is a problem for later, and up to you to decide.
The Fiat/Bitcoin Interface — A World in Limbo
We are living in a world in limbo—the old world is dying and the new one is yet to be born. This is why HODLing feels damn near impossible at these levels.
For all intents and purposes you need another stream of income, and the current fiat job market is in shambles. The smartest, low-risk way to accumulate more bitcoin remains the same: stay solvent, avoid excessive leverage, and develop/market a skill that others are willing to pay for.
If you feel that the bitcoin/fiat interface has a clunky, weird vibe to it, it’s for a good reason:
the status quo does not want to see more mainstream bitcoin adoption
bitcoiners are in a position where they espouse bitcoin beliefs but they must continue to support themselves via fiat means
Between the no-coiners vs the bitcoiners, I’m beginning to think no party on either side actually wants a smooth transition. What if both parties believe a volatile cataclysmic economic re-ordering would benefit their side? What if they both want to flip the table, thinking the table-flipping would benefits themselves?
Bitcoin doesn’t need new narratives right now. It just needs time. And time, inconvenient as it is, has always been Bitcoin’s greatest ally.
—JFZ
Not Financial Advice, Do Your Own Reearch
Coincidentally, this is contrary to every way you’ve been taught how to make money: “be useful to society”. No parent ever told their kid: “be stubborn and give society a huge tummy ache until they buy you out”